p Os mercados de habitação são os destinos preferidos dos investidores estrangeiros que procuram rendimentos, casas de férias ou portos seguros, ou para aqueles que se esquivam das restrições fiscais e da repressão à corrupção em seus países de origem. Mas a demanda por residências americanas de investidores estrangeiros, especialmente chinês, aumenta os preços das casas, exacerbando as preocupações sobre a acessibilidade da habitação, de acordo com uma nova pesquisa da Wharton. p Os preços das casas cresceram 8 pontos percentuais a mais nos códigos postais dos EUA com grande população de chineses nascidos no exterior de 2012 a 2018, de acordo com um artigo intitulado "Global Capital and Local Assets:House prices, Quantidades, e elasticidades, de autoria da aluna de doutorado da Wharton Caitlin Gorback e do professor do setor imobiliário da Wharton Benjamin Keys.

p "O quadro geral é que temos uma crise de acessibilidade para moradias nas cidades onde os empregos estão, "Disse Keys." Uma das verdadeiras tensões no mercado imobiliário dos EUA é que os lugares que estão tendo um forte crescimento do emprego não estão criando novas moradias com rapidez suficiente para acomodar esse crescimento do emprego. "

p O exemplo mais gritante de desconexão entre crescimento de empregos e habitação é a área da baía de São Francisco e, especificamente, o condado de San Mateo, disse Chaves. Desde 2012, aquela região teve um aumento de cerca de 30% no emprego, mas menos de 10% de aumento em unidades habitacionais, ele adicionou.

p Keys culpou a falta de moradias nas restrições de zoneamento que impedem a construção de novas casas, e o aumento dos custos de construção. “Há cerca de seis vezes mais empregos do que novas licenças de moradia, "disse ele." Há muitos obstáculos a serem superados para construir qualquer coisa nesses lugares, especialmente para construir de uma forma densa. "

p Estrangeiros que compram casas nos EUA podem exacerbar esse problema de acessibilidade, As chaves continuaram. Os compradores chineses lideraram investimentos estrangeiros em residências nos EUA nos últimos sete anos. Em 2019-2020, eles compraram propriedades residenciais nos EUA no valor de US $ 11,5 bilhões, ou pouco mais de um sexto do total, de acordo com um relatório da National Association of Realtors (NAR). Outros investidores entre os cinco primeiros vieram do Canadá, México, Índia e Colômbia, naquela ordem. (A Colômbia no ano passado substituiu o Reino Unido como o quinto maior país de origem de compradores estrangeiros). As compras de compradores estrangeiros representaram 4% das vendas de casas existentes de US $ 1,7 trilhão no ano passado, o relatório NAR observou.

p A pesquisa de Gorback e Keys também mostra que os preços dos imóveis e os aluguéis aumentaram em lugares que receberam grandes doses de investimento estrangeiro. "Isso ocorre em grande parte porque os lugares onde você vê compradores estrangeiros são os mesmos lugares que têm economias mais dinâmicas e têm mais empregos."

p Cerca de metade das casas que os estrangeiros compram são usadas como residências principais; os outros servem como casas de veraneio, segundas residências ou um pied-à-terre que visitam ocasionalmente, disse Chaves. "Por exemplo, grande parte do investimento canadense em casas nos EUA é proveniente de pássaros da neve que compram casas na Flórida. "

p O alcance de um 'choque de demanda'

p Usando o investimento estrangeiro como um "choque de demanda, "o artigo também analisa como o desenvolvimento de moradias é responsivo às mudanças de preço." Se os preços sobem em um mercado, isso estimula a construção? Isso leva a pás no solo? ", Perguntou Keys. Mercados diferentes respondem de maneira diferente a esses gatilhos, e muito depende da disponibilidade de locais alternativos nas proximidades, ele notou.

p O estudo descobriu que os mercados imobiliários são relativamente inelásticos às mudanças de preço no curto prazo de cerca de 10 anos. "Os preços das moradias podem se mover muito mais rapidamente do que a construção de moradias, "disse Keys. Ele acrescentou que" os mercados costeiros e os mercados que historicamente tiveram requisitos de zoneamento mais rígidos parecem ser mais inelásticos neste período, "acrescentando que este achado é consistente com pesquisas anteriores.

p Keys notou que sua pesquisa fornece "uma nova estimativa empírica dessas elasticidades que não foram estimadas usando esta abordagem ou durante este período de tempo." Torna possível "comparar e contrastar e, com sorte, calibrar modelos de economia urbana relacionados com a capacidade de resposta que esperaríamos dos mercados imobiliários a diferentes tipos de choques, " ele adicionou.

p O "choque de demanda" do investimento estrangeiro também desencadeia efeitos em cascata nos mercados imobiliários, o estudo descobriu, citando Seattle como exemplo de caso. "No caso de Seattle, quando você detalha geograficamente, você vê este padrão de crescimento diferencial dos preços das casas, não apenas nos bairros de origem estrangeira, mas nos bairros que fazem fronteira com esses bairros, "disse Chaves.

p The Seattle example is part of the study's computation of the impact foreign capital flows have on house prices and supply for the largest 100 markets in the U.S. It found that local housing markets are price inelastic in the short run, but that is heterogeneous (or varies) across markets. Seattle displayed "a spillover effect" where investment in foreign-born Chinese neighborhoods pushes up housing prices in the nearby neighborhoods as well, Keys continued. Seattle also absorbs some of the demand redirected from Canada, where cities like Vancouver deter foreign ownership of homes through taxes, including on ownership of vacant homes, ele adicionou.

p Redirected Foreign Demand, Volatility

p The U.S. housing market is also particularly sensitive to tax restraints many countries impose on foreigners buying residential properties in their jurisdictions, the paper found. Some of the investors turned away from those countries head to the U.S., which does not have those tax restraints.

p Chinese investments in U.S. housing reflect in part a flight of capital from China in recent years, said Keys. "A big part of that was about wealthier Chinese citizens moving their money abroad to avoid taxes and to avoid scrutiny, " he added. In fact, China in 2016 experienced "the greatest episode of capital flight in history, " according to a Wall Street Journal report at the time.

p As those investors turned their attention to the U.S., its housing markets turned out to be more sensitive than previously thought, said Keys. "One surprising finding in our study is how responsive foreign investment is to tax policies imposed abroad, " he added. "The takeaway for us is that these policies that are being imposed in countries like Singapore, Austrália, Canada and New Zealand have a direct effect on the U.S. housing market."

p Several countries consciously regulate foreign investments in residential properties, recognizing the undesirable effects some of that could have, especially with speculation. The paper documents 10 policy events in five countries between 2011 and 2018 that made the U.S. housing market "relatively cheaper to invest in." The governments in those countries used tax policy to deter foreigners from buying housing properties and to curb speculation.

p Singapore was the first to introduce a foreign buyer tax in 2011 in the form of a stamp duty; it progressively increased that to 20% by July 2018. Hong Kong levies stamp duties of 30% on nonresident home buyers, which includes a duty on those who are not first-time buyers, including residents.

p Others that levy taxes on foreign buyers of residential properties include the governments of British Columbia and Ontario in Canada; Victoria in Australia; and New Zealand. British Columbia also levied a speculation and vacancy tax in certain communities. Many countries impose such "foreign real estate buyer taxes" in order to deter foreign capital inflows and stabilize housing prices in their markets, the paper's authors noted.

p While foreign investments have lifted home prices in select U.S. markets, they have declined in the last three years. Foreign inflows had been steadily increasing from $66 billion in 2009-2010 to $153 billion in 2016-2017, but have since dropped to $74 billion last year (2019-2020), according to the NAR report cited earlier.

p Chinese investments in U.S. housing have followed that pattern, falling from nearly $32 billion in 2016-2017 to $11.5 billion last year. Keys attributed that to China's capital controls in recent years and pressure on its citizens to unwind their investments abroad in order to shore up its domestic economy, as the Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S.-China trade war, U.S. controls on immigration and unfavorable exchange rates have also dampened Chinese investments in U.S. housing, ele notou.

p What's Next for U.S. Housing?

p Keys said his study is timely now because "there's a big question about how the housing market will come back after COVID-19." He noted that several housing submarkets in the U.S. have seen "huge inflows of foreign investment" over the last 10 years. "If that dries up, it would represent an opportunity for domestic buyers and put downward pressure on prices, but that may be a bad thing for existing home owners."

p If the pandemic persists, foreign investments in U.S. homes would continue their decline, and cause home prices to fall, Keys predicted. In that setting, "clearly, there would be an advantage for domestic homebuyers, " said Keys. "[Also], a decline in foreign investment may relax some of the affordability constraints to a modest degree in cities where the jobs are more plentiful than the housing in them."

p Some of the space vacated by Chinese and Canadian investors could be filled by those from Mexico, India and Colombia, which have shown rising appetites for U.S. homes. But such demand is "highly dependent" on U.S. federal policies, said Keys. U.S. policies on combating COVID-19 is the first factor, ele adicionou. "Relative to the alternative markets where foreign buyers may be considering, we as a country have done the worst job managing the COVID crisis. Investors who are deliberating between the other megacities of the world and are concerned about public health will steer their investments away from the U.S. at the moment."

p The outcome of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election could change some of those stakes. "No momento, it feels like a difficult time for immigrants to feel welcome in this country, given the set of federal policies in place and the barriers to immigrate, " said Keys. "So, a change in administration that is attached to a change in those policies could certainly reinvigorate investment in the U.S. housing market."

p Policy Prescriptions

p Could the U.S. do something to protect its housing markets from unfavorable foreign investment? Policy makers could weigh the speed and magnitude at which foreign capital flows would decline, if the U.S. were to impose "a large foreign buyer tax" to deter foreign investments in housing, said Keys. Such investments "appear to be quite elastic" to the imposition of a foreign-buyer tax, ele adicionou.

p "My concern is largely one of unused housing units, especially in expensive areas, " said Keys. A vacancy tax similar to that in Vancouver is "worth considering, " he added. "One of the things that rapid flows of investment could do is they can distort construction efforts and put additional resources towards building properties that foreign investors may want only in the short term, but then that housing stock will last a very long time."

p Keys also urged state and local governments to re-examine zoning and height restrictions, and the time delays that permitting for new construction entails. "The number of hurdles to jump through makes it so challenging to develop affordable housing in the U.S., " he added. Some states like California have already begun taking legislative action to push local communities to change their zoning rules, ele notou.