Karl Schwartz gostaria de estar simplesmente perseguindo a glória na pista de corrida de motos de neve. Em vez de, nos últimos anos, ele foi forçado a perseguir um clima frio cada vez mais evasivo.

Schwartz, de Freeland, é presidente da Midwest International Racing Association, um circuito de corrida de snowmobile operando principalmente em Michigan por mais de 40 anos. Suas corridas de fim de semana atraem cerca de 100 equipes, centenas de pilotos e membros da tripulação, e milhares de fãs, geralmente como parte de um festival de inverno da comunidade local.

Mas a cada ano, com as mudanças climáticas de Michigan, está ficando mais difícil de fazer.

"Nós corremos no gelo, não neve, "ele disse." Nós não precisamos de neve - precisamos de temperaturas frias. "

Os corredores costumam competir em pistas de cavalos de feiras, inundado com centenas de milhares de litros de água para tentar construir uma base de solo congelado que as máquinas dos pilotos irão mastigar durante um fim de semana de competição. Eles precisam de cerca de duas semanas de temperaturas na adolescência para criar as condições adequadas. Com frequência crescente, que está se tornando quase impossível de encontrar, Disse Schwartz.

"Apesar de nossos melhores esforços para mudar nosso calendário, e regar essas pistas de corrida com semanas de antecedência, ainda estamos tendo que mudar as datas, cancelar datas e correr em condições menos do que perfeitas por causa do clima quente, " ele disse.

"Este tem sido um problema consistente para nós, especialmente nos últimos anos. Já dura mais do que isso, mas especialmente nos últimos cinco anos, tem sido realmente, realmente problemático. "

O conselho da associação de corrida tem realizado reuniões nos últimos anos para falar sobre o que pode fazer, incluindo mover mais corridas mais ao norte.

"(Mas) já estamos em Sault Ste. Marie, "no leste da Península Superior, na fronteira canadense, Disse Schwartz. "Duas corridas lá, e eles não conseguem nem mesmo ficar com frio o suficiente. Nossa corrida em Ironwood (no extremo oeste da U.P.) teve problemas, também.

"Quando você não consegue gelo na fronteira canadense, quanto mais ao norte você pode ir? "

Frio de Michigan, invernos nevados, e um modo de vida construído em torno deles, estão sendo perturbados pela mudança climática. E para festivais de inverno que dependem do frio, neve e gelo - e comunidades que dependem do impulso econômico em um momento lento que esses festivais trazem - está causando alguma dificuldade para se adaptar, e até mesmo para sobreviver.

A região dos Grandes Lagos tem visto um aumento maior nas temperaturas médias anuais do que o resto dos EUA continentais e "os invernos estão ficando mais quentes mais rapidamente do que os verões, "disse Richard Rood, professor de ciências climáticas e espaciais e engenharia da Universidade de Michigan.

"O planeta em geral está esquentando, mas estados como Wisconsin, Michigan e Illinois estão ficando mais quentes, mais rápido, "disse Don Wuebbles, professor do Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas da Universidade de Illinois.

A queda de neve na Bacia dos Grandes Lagos diminuiu 2,25% de 1984 a 2013 em comparação com 1954 a 1983. Os pesquisadores projetam que a queda de neve poderia diminuir em quase 48% até 2080 em um cenário business-as-usual, sem redução das emissões de carbono humano. Mas mesmo em um cenário mais otimista, onde as emissões de gases de efeito estufa são significativamente reduzidas, Espera-se que a queda de neve no inverno na Bacia dos Grandes Lagos diminua em mais de 28% até 2080.

O número de dias em que a baixa temperatura cai abaixo de zero, 32 graus Fahrenheit, na região dos Grandes Lagos é projetado por cientistas para diminuir em mais de um mês por ano no cenário de emissões mais altas, e em três semanas no cenário de emissões mais baixas. E dias em que a alta temperatura fica abaixo de zero - o tipo de dias consistentemente frios de inverno necessários para atividades como snowmobile, pesca no gelo, esqui cross-country e muito mais - projeta-se uma redução de 56 dias por ano com emissões de carbono mais altas, e por 31 dias com emissões mais baixas.

Invernos de Michigan, como as gerações os conheceram e confiaram neles, parece estar chegando ao fim. Ondas de frio e neve pesada com efeito de lago ainda acontecerão, mas acontecem em rajadas cada vez menos frequentes ao longo do tempo.

"Embora em certas regiões ainda esteja nevando muito, como está se comportando quando está no solo é um pouco diferente, "Rood disse." Não está durando tanto tempo, e fica desleixado quando a chuva cai sobre ele.

"Não precisa ser muito mais quente para que você tenha chuva com efeito de lago em vez de neve com efeito de lago."

No final do século, sob um cenário de altas emissões de carbono contínuas, cientistas projetam que a temperatura média anual de Michigan pode aumentar em 9 ou 10 graus Fahrenheit, Wuebbles disse.

"Isso é muito, clima muito diferente, "ele disse." Para comparação, a última Idade do Gelo, que trouxe gelo de 2 milhas de espessura aqui, a temperatura estava 11 graus mais fria do que hoje. "

Winter Fest foi cancelado - novamente

Os festivais de inverno de Michigan enfrentam um desafio diferente este ano - a pandemia COVID-19. Mas nos últimos anos, a interrupção veio da falta de condições tradicionais de inverno.

O Caro Winter Fest, na região de Thumb da Península Inferior de Michigan, cancelou eventos pelo segundo inverno consecutivo em janeiro. O festival é construído em torno das corridas de snowmobile da Midwest International Racing Association.

"Nos últimos anos, the temperatures have not cooperated whatsoever before the event, " said Kris Reinelt, Caro Winter Fest board president.

Festival staff usually begin flooding the Tuscola County Fairgrounds to build ice layers for the snowmobile racing track after the holidays, in preparation for the Winter Fest races, usually held around the third weekend of January.

"We need at least a week of consistent, Baixas temperaturas, " Reinelt said. "We would be able to build up 1 or 2 inches of ice a night, but then in the daytime, it would warm up and take it away.

"We have to pay for the water, we have to pay for the time. It doesn't become cost-effective to fight that battle."

The lost festivals over back-to-back years, and threatened again in 2021 by the coronavirus, cause a painful economic hit for the community.

"The racing teams bring in 300 people just among the racers, their families and friends who follow them, " Reinelt said. "In Caro, we draw another 3, 000 pessoas. Those are 3, 300 people who may never come to Caro, and they are coming in the middle of winter, which is a slow time. That's so helpful to the hotels, restaurantes, grocery stores."

At Tip-Up Town U.S., Michigan's longest-running winter festival, established in 1953 and built around ice fishing on Houghton Lake, nearly a dozen people fell through the ice last January, their snowmobiles, four-wheelers and other vehicles breaking through thin ice that was open water less than a week earlier.

The Kalkaska Winterfest, in northern Lower Michigan, features one of the Midwest's largest dog-sledding sprint races, going back to 1965—longer-running than the famed Iditarod in Alaska.

Em 2017, the races scheduled for January were postponed until the first week of March because of a lack of wintry conditions. When it was more of the same in March, the races were canceled.

Em 2018, the races were postponed in January, then canceled in February. The next year, the January dates were again moved to February, when the latter half of the racing schedule that weekend was canceled because "everything had just melted, " said Shannon Moore, a race marshal and board secretary for the Winterfest.

"That was something I'd never seen at a dog race, sempre, " ela disse.

At the local hotel sponsoring the event and hosting race teams and their families, the All Season Resort, "they go from being completely booked to 5% occupancy when we cancel, "Moore disse.

Many of the dog-sledding teams come from out of state, as much as 10 hours away, and bring kennels and trucks, crews and families. Though 2020's races went off without a hitch in mid-February, the more races that get postponed, canceled or happen in poor conditions, the more worry that teams won't bother coming, Disse Moore.

"I think we'll have to keep aiming for February and hoping we get lucky, " she said. "When we do it later in March, that's not going to work. And the January dates haven't been working, qualquer."

Snowmobile sales plummet 70%

Carl Gerstacker was a snowmobiling fanatic.

"From the mid-'90s until about '05-'06, there was a solid 10 years where we put on just a ton of miles and had fun with it, " ele disse.

But the pastime got more expensive. And the right conditions became harder to find.

"The winters are hit-or-miss now, " he said. "We've had some really good winters, where the guys are up there (in northern Michigan) feasting on perfect conditions. But when you're making payments on a $15, 000 machine, you need some consistency."

Gerstacker and his friends were "weekend warriors"—"get off work a little early on Friday, head north, spend the weekend riding the trails, head back home Sunday and go to work on Monday." But needing to go ever farther north to find the best, most consistent riding became a time-consuming, costly effort.

"If you're chasing snow into the U.P., that's not an option anymore, " the Brighton-area resident said. "You're talking eight to 10 hours of driving to get up into the good snow and the best trails."

Gerstacker in recent years has changed out the sleds for a side-by-side, a four-wheeled recreational vehicle featuring two rows of seating that his wife and two children can enjoy with him.

"There's always dirt, there's not always snow, " he said. "I'm watching my buddies making payments on these (snowmobiles), and they are going to ride two months this year. And these quick little shots Up North are expensive, também.

"I don't look back. I enjoy the side-by-side more than I ever did snowmobiling."

Gerstacker isn't alone in leaving snowmobiles behind. Snowmobile sales in the U.S. are down 70% from their 1997 peak, according to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers Association, a Haslett-based trade organization representing North America's four major snowmobile manufacturers:Arctic Cat; Ski-Doo/Bombardier; Polaris and Yamaha.

The Michigan Snowmobile Association, a Wyoming, Michigan-based nonprofit organization promoting and preserving the sport, also saw the changing reality. Em maio de 2019, its board—over the protests of some sledding die-hards—voted to become the Michigan Snowmobile and ORV Association, adding off-road vehicles under its canopy.

"They are motorized, we are motorized, and very often we have the same goals and objectives, " such as promoting trail access, said Karen Middendorp, the association's executive director.

Changing weather is unquestionably a factor in snowmobiling's decline, ela disse.

"You can't ride every weekend, especially for the down-staters, " she said. "There's not enough snow."

Snowmobiling exploded in popularity in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s, bringing $321 million in sales, $187 million in income, e mais de 6, 000 jobs to Michigan's economy, according to a 1998 Michigan State University study. It was primarily driven by baby boomers who had reached a more comfortable point in their lives and had the disposable income to afford, and the time to enjoy, snowmobiling. But now that population cohort is waning in the sport, said Edward Klim, executive director of the snowmobile manufacturers association.

"We have started to really look at millennials and Generation X. Are they recreating in the snow? Are they riding snowmobiles?" ele disse. "How does the next generation want to recreate? Some people will buy an ATV or UTV (utility terrain vehicle) and use it nine or 10 months a year."

It's a reality snowmobile dealers have been forced to confront:change or die.

"The writing was on the wall 10-plus years ago, " said Mike Nord, owner of Nord-Ride Motorsports in Mount Morris Township.

Around 2000, there were as many as 10 snowmobile dealerships in the greater Genesee County area. Nord's is now the only one left.

"There are two negative things against it:The cost of it now, and the weather, " he said. "The dealers had to look at it and say, 'This isn't a good business decision any longer.'"

Nord has survived by diversifying his vehicles, adding ATVs, side-by-sides and more. But even that comes with risks.

"If you look at some of the dealers that have fallen by the wayside, they fell into this trap, " he said. "You have to be able to accommodate (these diverse recreational vehicles), so you have to get bigger on your buildings, and that means bigger on your overheads. You finance that to increase the size of your building, and all of a sudden, we have an economic downturn. There is no Plan B."

Em contraste, ski resorts have stayed relatively unscathed by warming weather because of their ability to make snow, said Amy Reents, executive director of the Midwest Ski Areas Association based in Hastings, Minnesota, a nonprofit trade group promoting skiing and ski resort interests in Michigan and surrounding states.

"We're not growing by leaps and bounds, but there haven't been any great fall-offs, " ela disse.

During a few days of cold weather, a ski resort can lay down several feet of manufactured snow, ela disse. It's then packed and groomed and provides a base with its own refrigeration.

"They can withstand several days in the 40s—it will do much better than the snow in your front yard, " Reents said.

"The changes in snow-making technology over the years have made it so much easier to make snow in warmer temperatures. If anything has changed for the ski industry, it's that (resorts) have decided that capital investing in snow-making technology is hugely important."

Adaptation is essential

Adaptation and diversification will become increasingly essential for Michigan's winter festivals to continue and thrive. Many have already figured that out.

From long-ago years where many of Tip-Up Town U.S.'s events were held on the thick ice of Houghton Lake, the festival now largely operates under large tents on the shore, featuring family fun, Comida, music and merchants, said Jay Jacobs, executive director of the Houghton Lake Chamber of Commerce and a lead organizer of the festival.

Tip-Up Town typically draws about 10, 000 visitors over its two weekends of events at the end of January.

"It's very essential to us, " he said. "We rely on tourism—we don't have an industrial park; Houghton Lake doesn't have a defined downtown, um hospital, a university. These two weekends in the winter are a nice little shot in the arm for the community."

But even with diverse events not reliant on snow, ice or cold, a psychological deterrent can keep potential festival-goers home when it's warm out.

"It does affect the number of people who show up, " said Jacobs. "We've had a few years where it's been rainy, and people just don't hang around."

The Caro Winter Fest is so intricately tied to snowmobile races, it can't happen without them right now, Reinelt said. She wants to ask residents how they feel about changing that, in the wake of the recent, weather-related cancelations.

"I want to do polls on our Facebook:Would you come out in the middle of winter to watch a chainsaw ice competition, a warming tent with live entertainment, and a beer and wine bar?" she said.

A larger adaptation is needed, Rood said:a reduction in human-caused carbon emissions that are fueling climate change.

"These big changes should be major motivators to take on that carbon dioxide reduction problem, " ele disse.

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